Econ Ministry improves Russia’s 2022 GDP fall outlook to 4.2%

MOSCOW, Aug 17 (PRIME) -- The Economic Development Ministry has improved its assessment of a fall of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 4.2% in 2022 and worsened to a fall of 2.7% in 2023, a federal official familiar with the ministry’s discussions of the 2023–2025 forecast told reporters on Wednesday.

“The 2022 assessment has been improved significantly. At the stage of scenario conditions, the ministry saw a fall of around 7%, and the present assessment is minus 4.2% of GDP this year,” he said.

Russia’s GDP growth is seen at 3.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.

Inflation in Russia will amount to 13.4% in 2022, to 5.5% in 2023, to 4.2% in 2024, and the targeted level of 4% in 2025, the official said citing the ministry’s information.

Investment is expected to fall by 10.8% in 2022, as compared with an estimate of 19.4% in the previous forecast, In 2023, investment is to fall by 4.9%, and to rise by 7% and 3.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

The ministry sees unemployment remaining at the level of 4.8% in 2022, and rising to 5.2% in 2023.

Russians’ real disposable income and real wages will fall by 2.8% and 2.9% in 2022, and rise by 1.2% and 2.6% in 2023, according to the ministry’s expectations.

The average annual rate of the ruble against the U.S. dollar has been reduced to 68.1 rubles per dollar from 76.7 rubles per dollar for 2022. The average rate is expected at 69.2 ruble per dollar in 2023.

(61.4247 rubles – U.S. $1)

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